The ACA, Urban Legends, and Data

For years an urban legend has circulated that the poor and uninsured use emergency departments as a substitute for a doctor visit because hospitals are non-profits and won’t turn these sick and injured patients away.

You don’t have to be in healthcare or public health to “know” that hospitals won’t or can’t turn anyone away. The overcrowded, underfunded “county” hospital is a common trope in television and movies; County General Hospital of “ER” fame is probably the most prominent example. The fictional doctors there routinely treated the indigent and homeless, and their outrage at greedy private hospitals dumping uninsured patients on their doorstep was a recurring plot point.

This practice of transferring patients who don’t have insurance and can’t pay for treatment has occurred, and has been covered by news outlets. It was one of the reasons for the creation of the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act of 1986 (EMTALA), which instituted penalties for hospitals that denied emergency care to patients that required it. That law, and the fact that most institutions already practiced a policy of treating all emergency patients, likely contributed to the urban legend.

Even Snopes, the Internet clearinghouse for all urban legends, has weighed in on the topic, albeit indirectly. It addresses the specific question of a high profile hospital delivering more babies to illegal immigrants than legal residents. The recent political focus on immigration has brought that particular consequence of EMTALA and related legislation into the national consciousness.

But does this popular understanding of how emergency departments and EMTALA work reflect reality? Do the un(der)insured use emergency departments as a substitute for primary care providers, and do they do it because they can’t be turned away?

To begin with, let’s consider the implications of the EMTALA more closely. While it does protect patients who require emergency treatment and does include provisions for women in labor (making it relevant to the immigration conversation), the law does not mandate that all patients be treated for every complaint. If a qualified medical professional determines that there is no emergency, the patient can be turned away. This limits the ability to use emergency departments for preventive care, treating minor injuries and illness, and other primary care functions.

A recent report in JAMA by Raven et al would seem to bear this out. In an examination of nearly 35,000 emergency department visits, only 6% were found to be “primary care treatable.” Furthermore, of those 6%, nearly 90% had chief complaints identical to visits that did qualify as emergencies. Therefore, it may very well be that most nonurgent emergency department visits are not actually preventable by providing insurance to all individuals so they can get primary care. Instead, those visits may result from legitimate ambiguity on the patient’s part about the nature of their condition.

This was also corroborated in Massachusetts, where recent reforms improved access to insurance. A study by Smulowitz et al in the Annals of Emergency Medicine found that while low-severity visits to emergency departments were reduced after the reform, and the reduction was highest among the uninsured and those with newly subsidized insurance plans, only a small percentage of all low-severity visits were eliminated. Presumably other factors besides insurance were leading to the choice of the emergency department for healthcare.

The ACA and Syndromic Surveillance

Now that the ACA (aka “Obamacare”) has gotten past the government shutdown, past the debt ceiling crisis, and is almost to grandmother’s house (once the website is up and working), it’s time to think about how it will affect surveillance. 

Syndromic surveillance relies upon emergency department chief complaints for early indications of population health events.  Emergency department chief complaints work well for population surveillance because they provide early data on potentially severe cases and are widely available from most facilities.

Since this type of surveillance is tied so closely to emergency department utilization, it is affected by changes in the healthcare seeking behavior of the sick and injured.   It is also an excellent method of measuring the impact of the ACA.

Will the ACA result in an overall decrease in emergency department usage?

For years an urban legend has circulated that the poor and uninsured use emergency departments as a substitute for a doctor visit because hospitals are non-profits and won’t turn these sick and injured patients away.  In theory, the ACA will provide health insurance coverage to this group and they can then go to the doctor of their choice.

This thinking is part of the motivation for expanding state Medicaid programs and providing insurance subsidies.  Hospitals will no longer be subsidizing indigent care, costs won’t be transferred to other, insured patients.  Hospitals, especially those in urban poor centers will be better able to serve their community and in turn the health of the community will improve.

Improved health through earlier access to care is expected to further reduce emergency department visits, along with costs.  An average emergency department visit costs nearly ten times a visit to the doctor’s office.

This all sounds good.  Unless, of course, the premise is unsound. If that is the case, the ACA could even raise emergency department visits.

The key to untangling this is understanding the health seeking behavior of the sick and injured.  It seems like a simple question, but why does someone seek healthcare and how do they pick their provider?

Bringing this home to Health Monitoring Systems, we are beginning to look at how EpiCenter could measure the impact of policy on healthcare utilization.  On the flip side, we are also considering whether and how EpiCenter’s analysis will be impacted by healthcare reform.

Increasing Threat Seen in Tick-borne Diseases

There is a 10-15% fatality rate in reported cases of Powassan encephalitis, with many survivors suffering long-term neurological damage. Symptoms usually begin suddenly 7-14 days following infection, and include headache, fever, nausea and vomiting, stiff neck, and sleepiness. Later, breathing distress, tremors, confusion, seizures, coma, paralysis, and death can occur.

The illness was discovered in 1958 after a five year old boy from Powassan, Ontario died of severe encephalitis. Between 1958 and 2010 fewer than 60 cases of Powassan encephalitis were reported in North America. In 2011, there were 16 confirmed cases in the United States. Recently, the number of cases reported in upstate New York has increased dramatically.

Rick Ostfeld, a disease ecologist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies said, “We’ve seen a rise in this rare but serious illness in parts of New York State that are hotspots for Lyme disease. And we suspected it was tied to an increase in black-legged ticks carrying deer tick virus, particularly on the east side of the Hudson River.”

Over the course of a five-year study, researchers assessed more than 13,500 ticks of seven species of ticks in seven counties and proved Mr. Ostfeld’s theory – there was an increase in the number of black-legged ticks carrying deer tick virus in counties east of the Hudson river.

Laura Kramer, a research scientist at the Wadsworth Center, said, “Our findings are consistent with deer tick virus infection rates in people revealed in clinical tests by the New York State Department of Health. Of fourteen individuals testing seropositive for deer tick virus, ten were residents of Westchester, Putnam, or Dutchess counties. Another two were from Albany and Suffolk counties, areas with burgeoning black-legged tick populations.”

Unlike Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis, which take feeding black-legged ticks hours to transmit, deer tick virus transmission can occur in just 15 minutes. This leaves very little “grace period” for removing ticks, and underscores the importance of vigilance in tick hotspots.

Ostfeld concludes, “When patients present with encephalitis symptoms in areas with high levels of Lyme disease, especially during the summer, physicians need to consider Powassan encephalitis. While rare, it’s associated with significant complications. There is no vaccine or specific antiviral therapy, the best strategy remains prevention.”

Knowledge of Powassan encephalitis has grown largely as a result of West Nile virus surveillance. Both are part of the flavivirus group of arboviruses. More extensive arbovirus testing may reveal that deer tick virus is more widespread than previously thought.

Not a Healthy Outlook for HIEs

Some $548 million in the HITECH Act was devoted to offering startup funding to HIEs, which have helped to fill gaps in EHR interoperability. But that money is set to run out by the end of the year. “The health care providers are not willing to pay for the service at the level needed,” said Adler-Milstein. “They don’t see enough value, and that’s because much of it doesn’t accrue to them. It goes to patients and to health insurance companies. The central challenge is that the incentives and the business model are not aligned yet for this to really work.”

In an additional update to the challenges being faced by HIEs, the latest report from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF)  indicates that participation in Operational HIE efforts is low among public health departments, and that public health reports were the least common type of data exchanged:

Test results were the most common type of data exchanged (82% of efforts). The next most  common type was patient summary care records (exchanged in 79% of efforts). Discharge summaries were the most common type of data exchanged from inpatient  settings (66% of efforts) and clinical summaries were the most common type of data  exchanged from ambulatory settings (61% of efforts). Public health reports were the least common type of data exchanged (occurring in only 30% of efforts).

The RWJF report also noted that “The two public health-related stage 1 meaningful use criteria (syndromic surveillance and reportable lab results) were least likely to be supported by the HIE efforts. A small subset of HIE efforts supported all six HIE-related meaningful use functionalities.”

So what will happen in January when the funding runs out? Ideally leaner, more efficient alternatives to HIEs will find an approach that ensures that all stakeholders who benefit from health information exchange pay to support it. “In particular,” said Adler-Millstein and her colleagues, “efforts to exchange health information need to better engage private payers.”

Image Source: Health Information Technology in the United States: Better Information Systems for Better Care, 2013

MERS-CoV Found to be Less Transmissible Than SARS

The study indicated each patient would, on average, infect 0.69 others–so three infected patients would pass the virus on to just two people–as compared with an infection rate of 9.8 per patient for the SARS virus.

From September 2012 to date, the World Health Organization has been informed of a total of 79 laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with MERS-CoV, including 42 deaths. It was reported yesterday that a man in the UK has died from a case of MERS-CoV.

“Given the overall pattern where we’re seeing steady cases, and where we don’t know what the future brings, what we just want to make sure is that we can move as quickly as possible if we need to,” said Keiji Fukuda, the WHO’s assistant director-general for health security and environment, at a briefing in Geneva today. “We’re not in the midst of any acute event right now.”

The WHO plans to convene a committee of experts on July 9th (and again on July 11th if necessary) to decide whether MERS-CoV poses a public health emergency of international concern. The experts gathered for the committee will assess information on the outbreak and advise the WHO on whether it needs to make any further recommendations about the risk posed by the virus.

Age and Job Affect Likelihood of Spreading Infectious Disease

Although it is common sense that some jobs may be associated with more social contacts, the survey is believed to be the largest national study of its kind to date and allowed the scientists, for the first time, to quantify social contact patterns and how these varied with age and job.

A social contact was defined as a face-to-face conversation within 6 feet or skin-on-skin physical touch with another person. According to the study, children had the highest number of social contacts, making them most at-risk for catching and transmitting infection.

Among adults, those working in schools, in the health sector and in client-facing service jobs such as retail positions had among the highest number of social contacts. Students, unemployed people and retired people had among the lowest levels of social contacts.

According to the data collected, during a working day a teacher sees on average 62.1 different people, whereas a retired person only sees around 19.3 The length of time a person spends with a contact is an important risk factor in transmitting infection, so the results were converted into total contact hours, the sum of the durations of all contacts in one given day.

Most people have an average of around 26 social contact hours a day, but a small number have up to 50 contact hours a day since people can spend time with more than one individual simultaneously.

Dr Leon Danon from the Mathematics Institute at the University of Warwick said, “People working as teachers or health professionals are no doubt already aware that they have higher risks of picking up bugs like colds and flu. But before this study there was very little data mapping out the contact patterns humans have in their daily life. By quantifying those social interactions, we can better predict the risks of contracting and spreading infections and ultimately better target epidemic control measures in the case of pandemic flu, for example.”

 

Social group

(average) Social contact hours

Number of respondents

Children

47.6

44

Transport workers

37.4

11

Laborers

37.3

43

Service sector workers

33.2

280

Health sector workers

32.9

354

Teaching staff

32.0

311

Mechanics

31.7

64

Office workers

30.2

1069

Home-based workers

28.6

390

Students

28.5

347

Research staff

26.0

315

Entertainment

23.4

36

Retired

19.2

1577

Unemployed

18.4

117

 

Source: University of Warwick

Something in the Air

“That filtering mechanism, just like the filters in your house, can be overwhelmed to where they don’t work anymore,” said Dr. Jason Sigmon, “And then you’re going to be directly challenged by those things in the environment. Those are the things that we see with patients who typically don’t have lung problems.”

Wearing a mask in areas of heavy debris can be very effective at preventing tornado cough. For public health officials in Oklahoma, their capability to track the number of patients reporting tornado cough symptoms will determine their ability to mitigate such issues in the future.

In related news, a recent article in Popular Science revealed that scientists have discovered billions of bacteria thriving in Earth’s upper atmosphere. The scientists collected samples from the air 33,000 feet above the earth’s surface and discovered that  20 percent of what they had assumed to be just dust or other particles was actually alive.

The researchers found E. coli in the samples, which they believe hurricanes lifted from cities. They plan to investigate whether the bacteria could be making its way into rain water. This news is especially revelatory in light of the SARS-like spread of MERS coronavirus.

New Study: Universal Paid Sick Leave Reduces Spread of Flu

The researchers simulated an influenza epidemic in Pittsburgh and surrounding Allegheny County. The results of the study are reported in the American Journal of Public Health.

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that people with flu stay home for 24 hours after their fever breaks,” said lead author Supriya Kumar, Ph.D., M.P.H., a post-doctoral associate in Pitt Public Health’s Department of Epidemiology. “However, not everyone is able to follow these guidelines. Many more workers in small workplaces than in large ones lack access to paid sick days and hence find it difficult to stay home when ill. Our simulations show that allowing all workers access to paid sick days would reduce illness because fewer workers get the flu over the course of the season if employees are able to stay home and keep the virus from being transmitted to their co-workers.”

For public health officials, this means that informing communities about the importance of sick days during flu season could have a large impact on reducing overall healthcare costs by minimizing workplace influenza transmission.

In addition to investigating the impact of universal access to paid sick days, Dr. Kumar and her colleagues looked at an alternative intervention they termed “flu days,” in which all employees had access to one or two paid days to stay home from work and recover from the flu. The idea behind flu days is that they encourage employees to stay home longer than they currently do, thus reducing the potential for them to transmit illness to colleagues at work.

Giving employees one flu day resulted in more than a 25 percent decrease in influenza infections due to workplace transmission. A two flu-day policy resulted in a nearly 40 percent decrease. The researchers found that universal access to paid sick days was more effective for smaller companies, whereas the “flu days” were more effective for larger workplaces (defined as having 500 or more employees).

“These findings make a strong case for paid sick days,” said Dr. Kumar. “Future research should examine the economic impacts of paid sick-day policies.”

31st MERS Coronavirus Fatality Reported in Saudi Arabia

The WHO has also reported laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV originating in Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The virus has appeared in France, Germany, Italy, Tunisia, and the United Kingdom as well, but the patients were either transferred there for care, or returned from the Middle East and subsequently became ill. In France, Italy, Tunisia and the United Kingdom, there has been limited local transmission among patients who have not been to the Middle East but have been in close contact with laboratory-confirmed or probable cases.

A clinical study published in The Lancet last week suggests that MERS-CoV might have a longer incubation period than previously thought, which would mean that longer quarantine periods may be required to rule out infection among patient contacts.

Based on the current situation and available information, the WHO encourages all Member States to continue their surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections and to carefully review any unusual patterns.

Health Record Banks vs. Health Information Exchange

The advantages of the HRB model are many, as enumerated by a recent article published by the Biomedical Informatics Think Tank (BITT). HRBs would allow an individual to see all of their information in one place without any need to aggregate the information as required by current approaches to HIEs. Applications could be developed to allow users of HRBs to set up notifications for themselves or their loved ones in the event that their account was accessed by a healthcare provider in an emergency situation. Patients could use their HRB to monitor fitness plans and connect with healthcare providers about things like nutrition, physical therapy, and chronic disease management plans.

In order for HRBs to work, though, they will require large-scale participation—from patients, healthcare providers, mobile device manufacturers, and application developers. Several companies have made an effort to popularize user-initiated HRBs, but none has had notable success. Microsoft has a little-known HRB service called HealthVault, and Harvard University’s Data Privacy Lab unveiled an HRB called MyDataCan in 2012–but few updates have been announced about the system since the initial unveiling. Google Health was launched in 2008 and then cancelled in 2011. In a blog post about the discontinuation of the failed HRB service, Google stated,

When we launched Google Health, our goal was to create a service that would give people access to their personal health and wellness information…

Now, with a few years of experience, we’ve observed that Google Health is not having the broad impact that we hoped it would. There has been adoption among certain groups of users like tech-savvy patients and their caregivers, and more recently fitness and wellness enthusiasts. But we haven’t found a way to translate that limited usage into widespread  adoption in the daily health routines of millions of people.

Unfortunately, for the time being, it seems that the HRB model remains a concept that is easy to buy into, but difficult to sell.